The economic bill arrived faster than almost any analyst predicted. The International Energy Agency announced an emergency release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves—a measure rarely deployed—as the conflict severed roughly 8 million barrels per day from global supply. Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward by 0.8 percentage points to 2.9% and slashed GDP growth projections by 0.3 points to 2.2%. In a worst-case scenario—a full month of disruption with crude averaging $110 a barrel—Goldman put recession probability at 25%.
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“We’ve seen oil top $100 a gallon before and that happened to coincide with significant food price inflation,” Volpe said. “Most [food companies] operate on very thin margins, so that means that when important sources of costs increase, they have no choice but to pass those along downstream, to consumers.”,推荐阅读吃瓜获取更多信息
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